Settlement changes after peak population: Land system projections for China until 2050
نویسندگان
چکیده
• We simulate settlement system changes in China until 2050. Our model includes multiple systems, allowing for different urbanization trajectories. Future include both urban development and a of village landscapes. Increase built-up land mostly leads to decline natural areas via cropland displacement. Maintaining current population densities can avoid loss 57–73 × 10 3 km 2 land. has experienced unprecedented the past few decades, fueled by growth, economic development, rural migration. In future, growth as well migration is expected continue, but demographic scenarios indicate that will peak subsequently decline. As result, it unsure how develop after population. this study we further CLUMondo application represents range from dense landscapes, differing their area density enable simulation change results show UN high scenario combination with continued an increase about 48%. Conversely, low constant could be accommodated within amount China. Due prevailing protection policies, lead areas, hence our highlight opportunity space limiting take saving areas. This also demonstrates need more nuanced representation systems assessment
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Landscape and Urban Planning
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['1872-6062', '0169-2046']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2021.104045